Presentation: "The Economic Outlook in a Post COVID-19 World"
Rarely have Americans confronted so much uncertainty about the future. They have been gripped by a deadly virus (Covid-19) that has shut down economic activity and plunged the nation into a deep recession, if not something worse. There are also growing fears the damage caused by this lingering pathogen will permanently alter the economic and business landscape. If that’s not enough to ponder, the nation faces a presidential election this fall and its outcome will also shape the direction of the economy in 2021 and 2022. Last, and certainly not least, the US and other nations are about to face a debt bubble unlike anything seen before. Simply put, we are at a defining moment in history, one that will affect future economic growth, employment, trade and interest rates.
In the midst of all this volatility is the sobering fact that corporate managers, investors and households need to make decisions on a daily basis and be able to justify them. Doing so, however, will require tossing out the old rules and forecast models to make way for a more agile framework on how to operate in this highly challenging environment.
Bernard Baumohl is chief global economist at The Economic Outlook Group. He is well known for being ahead of the curve in assessing the direction of the U.S. and world economy. The Wall Street Journal ranked him as the most accurate economic forecaster for 2018.
Mr. Baumohl began his career as an analyst with the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank specializing in international affairs and national security. He later served as an economist at European American Bank with responsibilities to monitor the global economy and develop forecasts. Mr. Baumohl was also an award-winning economics reporter with TIME magazine who covered the White House, Federal Reserve and Wall Street.
A sought out international speaker, he frequently makes keynote presentations before conferences, workshops and legislatures on the latest economic and geopolitical outlook. In additional to his current post as chief global economist, Mr. Baumohl is on the faculty of the New York Institute of Finance, where he conducts seminars on how forward-looking economic indicators can help business leaders better foresee turning points in the economy. He has also previously lectured at NYU and Florida Gulf Coast University.
Mr. Baumohl is a member of the monthly Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel and his projections on the economy and geopolitical trends are frequently cited in the New York Times, Washington Post, Business Week, Financial Times, and on National Public Radio. He also served as a regular commentator on TV's Nightly Business Report.
Mr. Baumohl is author of The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities (Pearson Education). The best-selling book is in its 3rd edition and has been translated into several languages, including Chinese, Japanese, Russian, and German.
He is also a recipient of the John Hancock Award for Excellence in Financial Journalism, and is a member of the National Association for Business Economics and the American Economic Association. Mr. Baumohl has a Master’s degree in International Affairs and Economics from Columbia University.